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            Billions of people rely upon groundwater for drinking water and agriculture, yet predicting how climate change may affect aquifer storage remains challenging. To gain insight beyond the short historical record, we reconstruct changes in groundwater levels in western North America during the last glacial termination (LGT, ~20 to 11 thousand years ago) using noble gas isotopes. Our reconstructions indicate remarkable stability of water table depth in a Pacific Northwest aquifer throughout the LGT despite increasing precipitation, closely matching independent Earth system model (ESM) simulations. In the American Southwest, ESM simulations and noble gas isotopes both suggest a pronounced LGT decline in water table depth in in response to decreasing precipitation, indicating distinct regional groundwater responses to climate. Despite the hydrologic simplicity of ESMs, their agreement with proxy reconstructions of past water table depth suggests that these models hold value in understanding groundwater dynamics and projecting large-scale aquifer responses to climate forcing.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available June 11, 2026
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            Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 1, 2025
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            The abundance and isotopic composition of noble gases dissolved in water have many applications in the geosciences. In recent years, new analytical techniques have opened the door to the use of high-precision measurements of noble gas isotopes as tracers for groundwater hydrology, oceanography, mantle geochemistry, and paleoclimatology. These analytical advances have brought about new measurements of solubility equilibrium isotope effects (SEIEs) in water (i.e., the relative solubilities of noble gas isotopes) and their sensitivities to the temperature and salinity. Here, we carry out a suite of classical molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and employ the theoretical method of quantum correction to estimate SEIEs for comparison with experimental observations. We find that classical MD simulations can accurately predict SEIEs for the isotopes of Ar, Kr, and Xe to order 0.01‰, on the scale of analytical uncertainty. However, MD simulations consistently overpredict the SEIEs of Ne and He by up to 40% of observed values. We carry out sensitivity tests at different temperatures, salinities, and pressures and employ different sets of interatomic potential parameters and water models. For all noble gas isotopes, the TIP4P water model is found to reproduce observed SEIEs more accurately than the SPC/E and TIP4P/ice models. Classical MD simulations also accurately capture the sign and approximate magnitude of temperature and salinity sensitivities of SEIEs for heavy noble gases. We find that experimental and modeled SEIEs generally follow an inverse-square mass dependence, which implies that the mean-square force experienced by a noble gas atom within a solvation shell is similar for all noble gases. This inverse-square mass proportionality is nearly exact for Ar, Kr, and Xe isotopes, but He and Ne exhibit a slightly weaker mass dependence. We hypothesize that the apparent dichotomy between He–Ne and Ar–Kr–Xe SEIEs may result from atomic size differences, whereby the smaller noble gases are more likely to spontaneously fit within cavities of water without breaking water–water H-bonds, thereby experiencing softer collisions during translation within a solvation shell. We further speculate that the overprediction of simulated He and Ne SEIEs may result from the neglection of higher-order quantum corrections or the overly stiff representation of van der Waals repulsion by the widely used Lennard-Jones 6–12 potential model. We suggest that new measurements of SEIEs of heavy and light noble gases may represent a novel set of constraints with which to refine hydrophobic solvation theories and optimize the set of interatomic potential models used in MD simulations of water and noble gases.more » « less
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            Gas exchange between the atmosphere and ocean interior profoundly impacts global climate and biogeochemistry. However, our understanding of the relevant physical processes remains limited by a scarcity of direct observations. Dissolved noble gases in the deep ocean are powerful tracers of physical air-sea interaction due to their chemical and biological inertness, yet their isotope ratios have remained underexplored. Here, we present high-precision noble gas isotope and elemental ratios from the deep North Atlantic (~32°N, 64°W) to evaluate gas exchange parameterizations using an ocean circulation model. The unprecedented precision of these data reveal deep-ocean undersaturation of heavy noble gases and isotopes resulting from cooling-driven air-to-sea gas transport associated with deep convection in the northern high latitudes. Our data also imply an underappreciated and large role for bubble-mediated gas exchange in the global air-sea transfer of sparingly soluble gases, including O 2 , N 2 , and SF 6 . Using noble gases to validate the physical representation of air-sea gas exchange in a model also provides a unique opportunity to distinguish physical from biogeochemical signals. As a case study, we compare dissolved N 2 /Ar measurements in the deep North Atlantic to physics-only model predictions, revealing excess N 2 from benthic denitrification in older deep waters (below 2.9 km). These data indicate that the rate of fixed N removal in the deep Northeastern Atlantic is at least three times higher than the global deep-ocean mean, suggesting tight coupling with organic carbon export and raising potential future implications for the marine N cycle.more » « less
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            Abstract. Here we present a newly developed ice core gas-phase proxy that directlysamples a component of the large-scale atmospheric circulation:synoptic-scale pressure variability. Surface pressure changes weakly disrupt gravitational isotopic settling in the firn layer, which is recorded in krypton-86 excess (86Krxs). The 86Krxs may therefore reflect the time-averaged synoptic pressure variability over several years (site “storminess”), but it likely cannot record individual synoptic events as ice core gas samples typically average over several years. We validate 86Krxs using late Holocene ice samples from 11 Antarctic ice cores and 1 Greenland ice core that collectively represent a wide range of surface pressure variability in the modern climate. We find a strong spatial correlation (r=-0.94, p<0.01) between site average 86Krxs and time-averaged synoptic variability from reanalysis data. The main uncertainties in the analysis are the corrections for gas loss and thermal fractionation and the relatively large scatter in the data. Limited scientific understanding of the firn physics and potential biases of 86Krxs require caution in interpreting this proxy at present. We show that Antarctic 86Krxs appears to be linked to the position of the Southern Hemisphere eddy-driven subpolar jet (SPJ), with a southern position enhancing pressure variability. We present a 86Krxs record covering the last 24 kyr from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide ice core. Based on the empirical spatial correlation of synoptic activity and 86Krxs at various Antarctic sites, we interpret this record to show that West Antarctic synoptic activity is slightly below modern levels during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), increases during the Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas North Atlantic cold periods, weakens abruptly at the Holocene onset, remains low during the early and mid-Holocene, and gradually increases to its modern value. The WAIS Divide 86Krxs record resembles records of monsoon intensity thought to reflect changes in the meridional position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on orbital and millennial timescales such that West Antarctic storminess is weaker when the ITCZ is displaced northward and stronger when it is displaced southward. We interpret variations in synoptic activity as reflecting movement of the South Pacific SPJ in parallel to the ITCZ migrations, which is the expected zonal mean response of the eddy-driven jet in models and proxy data. Past changes to Pacific climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may amplify the signal of the SPJ migration. Our interpretation is broadly consistent with opal flux records from the Pacific Antarctic zone thought to reflect wind-driven upwelling. We emphasize that 86Krxs is a new proxy, and more work is called for to confirm, replicate, and better understand these results; until such time, our conclusions regarding past atmospheric dynamics remainspeculative. Current scientific understanding of firn air transport andtrapping is insufficient to explain all the observed variations in86Krxs. A list of suggested future studies is provided.more » « less
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